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A问问任何一家网络初创公司或任何一家提供云服务的科技公司的人, 他们会告诉你他们玩的是“如果?" game all the time. 如果我们的一个主要数据中心停电了怎么办? 如果网络运营商限制带宽会发生什么? 如果所有用户同时登录会发生什么? 大多数公司问这些问题的原因是因为它们是建立在破损模型上的. (The most well-known breakage model is actually your local gym; what happens if everyone shows up at the same time?) Software service companies, like all companies built on finite resources, rely on subscribers paying monthly or annually, 但是他们通常只构建能够承受一定比例的用户并发性的服务. Of course, as their user base grows, hopefully, so does their infrastructure: servers, network capacity, customer service personnel. 

Streaming is no different. 但25年的发展历程给了流媒体很多值得借鉴的断裂时刻. 每次都有一个“互联网记录”,同时用户以一定的比特率, 平台运营商有机会评估他们自己的基础设施(特别是当这些损坏时刻实际上导致某些东西损坏时),并做出改变,以确保同样的情况不会再次发生. And each moment builds off the last, 在未来,流媒体视频运营商可以以类似广播的质量切实支持数千万并发用户. 

What if that future were today, though? What if it was happening right now?

The COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders from local and national governments have created a perfect storm for the streaming video breakage model: more people watching streaming video at more times during the day, 与更多使用其他互联网服务的人竞争. 没有哪个平台运营商能预测到收视率会在一夜之间呈指数级增长, 加上全球发行(迪士尼+进入美国).K. and other European countries), theatrical releases being pushed to digital early, game drops being fast-tracked, 以及Quibi等新的流媒体视频平台的推出, HBO Max, and Peacock. It's not just a perfect storm for the internet and streaming video; it's digital Armageddon. Governments have even intervened, 要求YouTube和Netflix等主要流媒体提供商降低比特率,以便基于工作的互联网使用, for all those people who work from home now, 不会因为每个人都想用4K看他们最喜欢的节目的最新一集而窒息.

但目前的形势也是一个独特的机遇. Again, 这种并发使用和扁平化的流量模式很可能是大多数视频平台运营商所预测到的. What they couldn't really predict, though, 没有我们现在看到的那种规模, is where the breakage would happen. What systems would fail? 会不会是物理基础设施不堪重负(只是I/O太多了)?? Would it be the pipes filling up? 是云服务超出了其弹性的能力吗? 你可以说我们现在就在一个巨大的培养皿里, 最终流媒体实验将决定如何 需要部署未来的架构和技术, configured, 并优化,以确保当这种独特的情况, this perfect storm, does become the norm, the streaming providers are ready for it.

然而,把这一切都看作是“经受住风暴”并不是正确的方法. Instead, you're preparing for the future. Yes, the current situation will get resolved. Things will go "back to normal." And when they do, 流媒体运营商可以深吸一口气,并知道他们已经建立了足够的处理 what they had projected for today's demand. With this opportunity, 平台运营商应该深入研究他们的架构和技术,以便在未来取得飞跃. For example, 通过实现解决方案来度量端到端交付, 它们可以修复在当前负载下性能不佳的工作流组件, so that when the current load becomes the norm, their architectures are already future-proofed. Of course, it's 很难同时处理好所有的球并检查它们. 不过,也许没有比这更好的机会来收集大规模使用的影响数据了. 如果平台运营商可以为他们的整个工作流程实施适当的测量工具(大多数视频分销商已经过度集中) on the player for gathering data), 然后,在所有的火灾都被扑灭后,关键信息可以用来影响未来的防护.

流媒体行业可能在未来几年都不会看到它现在所经历的需求水平. 蹲下身子,只是在暴风雨中安然无恙,就像当健身房的所有成员都从前门出来时躲在后面的房间里一样. 面对逆境并从中学习的唯一方法就是正面面对. I only hope that when the dust settles, all the video distributors, service providers, 网络运营商也会分享他们的基础设施在哪里坏了,这样我们就不用在密室里独自熬过下一场风暴了.

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